A tropical system churning in the Caribbean is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday as it takes aim at Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Gulf Coast.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, where Rafael is forecast to bring heavy rain and mudslides Monday night into Tuesday morning. A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands.

Rafael could strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as it makes landfall in Cuba with heavy rain, strong winds, flash flooding and storm surge.

Rafael is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm by the end of the week.

By Saturday, Rafael could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast.

It’s too early to tell which parts of the Gulf Coast will see the worst conditions. Everyone from Texas to Florida should monitor the storm’s path.

Atlantic hurricane season lasts through Nov. 30.

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