(NEW YORK) — As the Earth’s temperature continues to rise, lives could be at stake. A new study found deaths related to extreme temperatures may triple by the middle of the century, hitting minority communities the hardest.
University of Pennsylvania researchers looked at the relationship between average temperatures and number of deaths across counties in the United States between 2008 and 2019, according to the study published in JAMA Network Open on Friday. Currently, there are just over 8,000 annual temperature-related deaths in the country.
But just a single additional day of extreme heat in a month could increase these numbers.
“For years, we have been chronically underestimating the number of heat-related deaths … because they are so complicated,” Gaurab Basu, MD, director of education and policy at the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told ABC News. “The methodologies they’re using, and the outcomes of this paper are more in line with what we believe is actually the impact of heat on mortality.”
To arrive at their estimates, the team used established climate models to predict future deaths from the heat or cold between 2036 and 2065. They ran these predictions through two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions.
“The lower emissions scenario represents what we think might happen to the greenhouse gas emission trajectory if currently proposed climate policies are enacted,” Sameed Khatana, MD, the study’s lead author and assistant professor of medicine at the Perelman School of Medicine, said. “The higher emissions scenario represents business as usual––what would happen if the economy continued to be very dependent on fuels.”
By 2065, the researchers predict that deaths from extreme temperatures could reach 19,300 in the lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and 26,500 with higher emissions––a 134% and 222% increase, respectively.
Hispanic and Black communities would fare the worst, the study suggested. Hispanic adults could see a 527% rise in temperature-related deaths and non-Hispanic Black adults could see a 278% increase.
“It’s critical to understand that a warming planet is dangerous to all of us. But climate change and heat-related impacts on health are very disproportionate and very inequitably distributed,” Basu said.
Khatana noted that part of the disproportionate burden on minority communities stems from projected population shifts. Minority and non-White populations are expected to grow faster than white populations.
However, even after accounting for this, significant differences in temperature-related deaths remain for a variety of reasons.
Minority populations often work longer hours in the heat, live in areas with less green space and more pollution, and lack adequate home cooling.
Researchers urge targeted solutions to address these disparities.
“We have to analyze the ways in which communities of color are vulnerable to exposures, to heat, because of a lack of resources and because of the kind of occupations and disempowered positions they are in,” Basu said. “We need to start there.”
Khatana emphasized the importance of staying hopeful when considering the future of climate change.
“We should think about the steps we can take to lower our carbon footprint,” he said. “We found that, even though in both [greenhouse gas] scenarios, there is an increase in extreme temperature-associated deaths, the increase is lower when the trajectory of emission increases is lower as well.”
“But no one should pretend that there’s a simple solution. Climate change is a very complex issue that requires a concerted effort at multiple levels.”
Anokhi Saklecha, M.D., is an internal medicine resident at Yale New Haven Health and a member of the ABC News Medical Unit.
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