iStock/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) – Europe is preparing for a series of elections across the continent in the coming months that could determine the future of the European Union amid rising anti-establishment movements. The first of these will take place in the Netherlands next week as Dutch voters elect a new parliament and their next prime minister. Among the candidates is one that has been called the Dutch Donald Trump and is perhaps one of the most notable populist leaders in Europe at the moment.
Here’s what you need to know about the Dutch election.
Who are the main players?
Geert Wilders
The populist leader’s Party for Freedom (PVV) began as a fringe party but is now one of the most formidable forces in this election, challenging more established parties with its anti-EU, anti-Islam platform. Wilders’ populist appeal has elicited frequent comparisons to Trump.
MAKE THE NETHERLANDS GREAT AGAIN! #PVV #PVV #PVV #PVV #PVV pic.twitter.com/2wyuUPUAXy
— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) April 26, 2016
Wilders has campaigned on a platform that calls for banning immigration from Muslim countries, shutting down mosques and removing the Netherlands from the EU. The far-right leader was found guilty of inciting discrimination against Moroccans in the Netherlands last year and recently made headlines for calling Moroccans “scum who make the streets unsafe.”
Mark Rutte
The current prime minister is seeking his third term in office along with his Liberal (VVD) Party, which is currently governing in a coalition with the Labor Party (PvdA). During his time in office, Rutte has had to fend off growing criticism from populist quarters, led primarily by Wilders. These criticisms have grown particularly pronounced in the wake of Europe’s refugee crisis. In response, Rutte has moved to the right during the campaign. In January, the prime minister published an open letter to the country’s citizens saying that anyone who refused to adapt to Dutch traditions should either “behave normally or go away.”
When is the vote?
Dutch voters will go to the polls on Wednesday, March 15. The results of the election will determine which party will have a chance to form a new government.
What are the biggest issues?
Immigration and Dutch EU membership are two of the biggest issues in this political campaign. Wilders has highlighted both and made a point of tying them to questions of Dutch identity. Rutte has jumped on the bandwagon with his appeal to integration but has also made a point of highlighting the ongoing recovery of the Dutch economy, which has seen unemployment drop to a five-year low, with 2.5 percent economic growth.
How does the voting system work?
While only a few parties really have a chance of winning enough votes to form a government, Dutch voters are actually choosing between 28 different parties in this election. This matters because parliament’s make-up is determined by the proportion of votes received by each party. There are 150 seats up for grabs; if one single party received more than 50 percent of the vote that party could instantly have enough seats to run its own government. But, because that rarely happens, parties typically have to form coalitions with other parties. The current government is a coalition of Rutte’s VVD with the Labor Party (PvdA).
Who is expected to win?
Polls have consistently shown Wilder’s PVV marginally ahead of Rutte’s VVD but that lead has narrowed as the election has drawn closer. However, even if the PVV got the most votes, the party is not expected to be able to find allies in parliament willing to build a coalition government. Most parties have already voiced their opposition to working with the PVV, in which case the VVD will be tasked with forming a coalition.
Why are ballots being counted by hand?
In February, Dutch officials said they would count all ballots by hand over fears of cyber-hacking of election software. Allegations of Russian interference in the U.S. election have raised concerns about the vulnerability of computer software and whether elections could be manipulated by outside actors.
“I cannot rule out that state actors may try to benefit from influencing political decisions and public opinion in the Netherlads,” interior minister Ronald Plasterk said in a letter to parliament last month.
Why are these elections significant?
As the first in a series of European elections that will test the political viability of far-right, populist parties, the Dutch election is seen as a crucial bellwether. Regardless of whether Wilders is actually able to become the prime minister, he has already succeeded in shaping the public discourse around issues like immigration and the Netherlands’ EU membership. Even as an opposition party, Wilders can guarantee that these issues remain at the forefront of Dutch politics.
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