ABC News(NEW YORK) — It’s Election Day in America, and citizens in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., are heading to the polls to choose the nation’s 45th president.
Preliminary results from exit polls in 28 key states will give us a glimpse of who’s voting and what’s motivating their choices.
Note: These are preliminary exit poll results; they can change, possibly materially, as the evening progresses.
FLORIDA
Florida is said to be essential for Trump, and critical factors in this state may include turnout by minorities, on one hand, and evangelical whites, on the other. The campaigns’ ground games likely will prove crucial.
Given its importance in electoral college calculations, Florida has been a focus of get-out-the-vote efforts. In preliminary exit poll results, about three in 10 voters in the state say they personally were contacted by at least one of the campaigns — 12 percent on behalf of Clinton, 9 percent on behalf of Trump and 7 percent by both campaigns.
Hispanics: Nonwhites accounted for a record 33 percent of voters in Florida in 2012, including 17 percent Hispanics, helping Obama to a close victory there. In preliminary exit poll results, nonwhites make up 39 percent of voters overall, a new record if it holds, including 18 percent Hispanics. Non-Cuban Hispanics narrowly outnumber Cuban-Americans, 10 to 6 percent. That said, additional data including later-in-the-day-voters is needed before making firm conclusions.
Evangelicals: White evangelical Christians accounted for 24 percent of Florida voters in 2012 and 2008 alike, supporting the Republican candidates by 79-21 and 77-21 percent, respectively — the single strongest demographic group for the GOP. In preliminary results they account for 20 percent of Florida voters, another number worth watching.
Immigration: Fifty-nine percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results in Florida say immigrants make the country better rather than worse. Seventy percent support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. These results are similar to preliminary national data.
Party ID: The difference in turnout among partisans is razor-thin in early exit poll results, 33 percent Democratic, 32 percent Republican and 35 percent independents.
Miami: The largest chunk of voters come from the Miami/Gold Coast area, 28 percent; it’ll be important to watch how the vote goes there over the night.
NORTH CAROLINA
An influx of new residents may influence vote choices in North Carolina, as may the large share of the electorate that’s nonwhite — a record 30 percent, including 23 percent blacks, in 2012, when Barack Obama lost the state by 3 points.
Nonwhites: In preliminary exit poll results this year, 30 percent of voters are nonwhites, with 21 percent blacks, both close to their levels in 2012, 30 and 23 percent, respectively. These estimates can change as data on late-day voters comes in, so check back.
Non-college whites: One of Trump’s strongest groups, non-college whites accounted for 37 percent of voters in 2012, more than the share of minorities. Tuseday night, in North Carolina, preliminary exit poll results suggest they may fall short of their 2012 numbers; the current estimate is 32 percent, vs. 38 percent college-educated whites. In both 2012 and 2008, non-college whites outnumbered college-educated whites; this could flip this year.
As in Florida, there have been concerted get-out-the-vote efforts in North Carolina. In preliminary exit poll results, about a third of voters in the state say they personally were contacted by at least one of the campaigns — 13 percent on behalf of Clinton, 9 percent on behalf of Trump — and 12 percent by both campaigns, similar to Florida.
Immigration: Thirteen percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results say moved to North Carolina within the past decade. It’s a group that made up 19 percent of voters in 2012, and — unlike natives or longer-term transplants — tilted toward Barack Obama.
Party ID: Early results show Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 8 points, 38 to 30 percent, compared to a 6-point advantage for Democrats in 2012. If this ratio holds, it would be the lowest turnout among Republicans in exit poll data back to 1984.
HB2: Sixty-six percent of North Carolina voters say they oppose the so-called “bathroom law,” while just 29 percent support it.
Obama: The president has a healthy 55 percent job approval rating among voters in North Carolina, a possible boost to Clinton.
OHIO
Non-college whites: This core Trump support group accounts for 42 percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results in Ohio, greater than in many other states, and slightly outnumbering college-educated whites (38 percent). But non-college whites outnumbered college-educated whites by greater margins in previous years — 11 points in 2012 and 17 points in 2008.
Kasich: Fifty-three percent of Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Gov. John Kasich, much higher than the popularity of either Clinton (44 percent) or Trump (39 percent). As the evening progresses we’ll try to see whether Kasich’s distance from Trump plays a role.
Obama: In a state he won twice, Ohio voters divide 54-45 percent, approve-disapprove, on Barack Obama’s job performance. That’s similar to his rating nationally Tuesday night in preliminary exit poll data.
Emails and women: Voters are equally disturbed by Clinton’s handling of her emails as Trump’s treatment of women — 46 percent are bothered a lot by the former, 47 percent by the latter.
Finances: Thirty-one percent of Ohio voters say they’re financially better off than four years ago vs. 28 percent who say they’re worse off. (Forty-one percent say they’re about the same.)
PENNSYLVANIA
Both candidates spent their last night campaigning in Pennsylvania, a state central to both their routes to the presidency. Yet 77 percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results say they made up their minds in September or earlier.
Qualifications, temperament and honesty: Clinton is comfortably ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania on only one key characteristic – 55 percent of voters think she has the right temperament for the job, vs. 36 percent who say the same about Trump. On being qualified, they’re much closer, 49 percent for Clinton, 43 percent for Trump. Nationally, Clinton’s well ahead on both. Similar to national results, they’re about evenly rated on honesty.
Clinton’s get-out-the-vote efforts appear to have surpassed Trump’s in Pennsylvania. Twenty-three percent of voters say they were only contacted by the Clinton campaign, 13 percent only by Trump’s, 16 percent by both.
Whites by education: College-educated whites have outnumbered non-college whites in Pennsylvania in the last two presidential elections; the former are a better group for Clinton this year, the latter far better for Trump. And in preliminary poll results they’re about even in size: 41 percent of voters are college-educated whites, 40 percent non-college whites (and 19 percent are nonwhites).
Suburbs: The Philadelphia suburbs are a potential battleground, accounting for 23 percent of the state’s voters in 2012, when Obama won them by 7 points. The Philly suburbs account for a similar 22 percent of the vote in preliminary results – though that may change when commuters get home and vote this evening. It’s a group worth watching.
Party ID: Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 10 and 7 points in the 2012 and 2008 elections in Pennsylvania, respectively. In early exit poll results, 6 points separates them, 43 vs. 37 percent.
Future generation: Pennsylvania voters are more optimistic than pessimistic about the future, a result that could help Clinton: Forty percent feel the next generation will be better off, vs. 31 percent who think they’ll be worse off. (Another 27 percent think it’ll be about the same.)
MICHIGAN
Race: If Trump opens a Northern path it’ll run through Michigan, likely carried by working class (i.e., less-educated) whites. College and non-college whites were almost equally balanced in the state in 2012, accounting for 38 and 40 percent of voters respectively. In preliminary exit poll results, non-college whites make up 43 percent – a proportion to watch as the evening progresses.
Then there are minority voters, whose numbers grew from 18 percent of Michigan voters in 2008 to 23 percent in 2012. Currently they again account for 23 percent in preliminary exit poll results.
Race issues: About as many voters in Michigan think the criminal justice system treats blacks unfairly as say it treats everyone fairly (46 vs. 45 percent), and far more people think whites are favored over minorities in the country than think minorities are favored over whites (41 vs. 20 percent).
Finances and jobs: Economic conditions are looking up in Michigan, with 37 and 39 percent saying their financial situation and the general job situation in the area better than four years ago, vs. 24 and 23 percent who feel both are worse than they were.
ARIZONA
Hispanics: Hispanic voters account for 16 percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results from Arizona, vs. 18 percent in 2012. Nonwhites overall account for 25 percent of voters preliminarily, about the same as in 2012. Clinton’s pinned her hopes on Hispanic support in this traditionally red state.
Age: Voters aged 18-29 made up a large 26 percent of voters in Arizona in 2012, generally much higher than in other states. In preliminary results, they are turning out in fewer numbers this year (just 15 percent in preliminary results).
Immigration: Arizona is ground zero for the immigration debate. Voters here divide 43-53 percent, support-oppose, on one of Trump’s signature issues, building a wall along the Mexican border. They also divided by a lopsided 77-18 on giving undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship vs. deporting them. Characterize vs. national
Party ID: Independents predominate in early results in Arizona, 40 percent, vs. 32 percent who identify with the Republicans and 28 percent who say they’re Democrats. In 2012, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 9 points.
Popularity: Both candidates are disliked in Arizona – 58 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, 59 percent of Trump.
Qualities: A plurality, 34 percent, say the most important candidate quality was someone who “can bring needed change.” But about half want experience or good judgment. Just one in 10 are looking for empathy.
Exit polls, the surveys conducted as voters leave their polling place, rely on random sampling of voters. Because so many people vote early or by mail, this year’s exit polling will also include telephone polls conducted in states with a high percentage of early or absentee voters. Learn more about the process here.
Copyright © 2016, ABC Radio. All rights reserved.