iStock/Thinkstock(TOPEKA, Kan.) — Republicans are making a big, last-minute push in a special election in a rural Kansas district that is getting too close for the GOP’s comfort.
In what is the first congressional race since November, Republicans hope for a landslide in a district that President Trump won by nearly 30 percentage points and where the House seat was vacated when Rep. Mike Pompeo become the CIA’s director.
Democrats meanwhile want to perform well enough to show that anti-Trump sentiment could prompt a blue wave in the 2018 races for House and Senate.
Republicans have held the seat in south-central Kansas for more than two decades, but there are signs the race may be closer than some expected.
Who’s running?
Republican Ron Estes, the Kansas state treasurer, has been expected to defeat Democrat James Thompson, a local civil rights attorney and military veteran, in this election for the House seat in Kansas’ fourth congressional district.
But in the race’s home stretch, Republicans have rushed resources and star power into the district.
What are signs that Republicans may be getting nervous?
Democrats are hopeful that an upset victory or even a close finish could be possible in this very red district, and the national GOP is showing signs that the race may be closer than expected.
Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz held a rally with Estes in the district Monday afternoon. President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence recorded a robo-call for the campaign.
In the president’s call, he called Estes “a conservative leader who’s going to work with me to make America great again … Ron is going to be helping us, big league.”
The GOP group dedicated to House elections, the National Republican Campaign Committee, put more than $100,000 in advertising dollars into the race in the week before the election. And House Speaker Paul Ryan made a fundraising request for the Republican candidate’s campaign, according to the Kansas City Star.
“As a friend of Ron’s and as House Speaker, I can tell you that this one of the most important House races in the country. Please consider this a personal request,” Ryan wrote, according to the Star.
What could a close finish mean for national politics?
A narrow GOP victory — or a Democratic upset — could be a red flag for the GOP for other 2017 elections, such as the hotly-contested House race in Georgia next week and elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey.
Anything short of a resounding GOP win could demonstrate that anger over President Trump’s victory or his policies has mobilized liberal and moderate voters or that the bumps of the administration’s first 100 days may be tempering enthusiasm among core Republicans.
Still, regardless of the outcome, this is only one election with plenty of local dynamics at play, such as the unpopularity of Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback and the campaign run by Estes.
Why could this race be closer than expected?
Though a bigger spotlight has been on Georgia’s special election next week, national Democrats have targeted efforts at the Kansas seat. The Daily Kos said that Democrats raised more than $100,000 in two days last week after reports that national House Republicans were dropping more money into the Kansas race.
Estes has been a member of the team of Gov. Sam Brownback, whose unpopularity contributed to GOP losses in the 2016 state legislative elections in Kansas. Democratic candidate Thompson has worked to paint Estes as Brownback’s right-hand man.
Estes’ fundraising advantage over Thompson was lackluster — $283,000 for Estes versus $252,000 for Thompson in the latest complete campaign finance report in late March. Thompson says he’s gotten support from grassroots activists and has painted Estes as getting his money from out-of-district sources.
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