OVERVIEW: 

A weather system is expected to move through the Southeast US on Thursday, which will push a cold front through Central Alabama and lead to the potential for severe storms. Strong, gusty winds will be possible through much of the afternoon outside of any potential thunderstorms.

While a severe potential exists across all of Central Alabama, the better chance for severe weather appears to be in the western half of Central Alabama.  Specific locations where we could see severe storms will likely change in the next few days as we refine the forecast. 

 CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST: 

none

WHERE: 

                   * All of Central Alabama

WHEN: 

                   * Thursday

THREATS: 

                   * Damaging winds

                   * Tornadoes cannot be ruled out

                   * Wind gusts 30-35 mph outside of any thunderstorm activity

The National Weather Service is giving Alabamians an early heads up that strong to severe storms will be possible in the state on Thursday.

However, there are several “ifs” in the forecast. The confidence in the overall severe threat has ticked downward — just a little — from over the weekend. Many of the parameters for storms will be in place, according to forecasters, but not all of them.

The timing is also still up in the air, and the areas affected could change, but as of Monday morning a large part of the state will face the risk of damaging winds, heavy rain and tornadoes on Thursday, according to forecasters.  West Alabama seems the most likely place for storms on Thursday, according to the weather service. The severe threat for east Alabama is more uncertain.  Storms are expected to move into Alabama on Thursday from the west ahead and along a strong cold front.  It is also expected to be windy on Thursday — even away from storms, according to the weather service. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible during the day on Thursday.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has put a large part of Alabama in its Day 4 risk for severe weather, including Huntsville, Birmingham, Mobile, Montgomery and Tuscaloosa, among other areas (see the map at the top of this post).

The weather leading up to Thursday will be quite nice for mid-February, according to the weather service. After chilly mornings temperatures are expected to warm up nicely today through Thursday, with sunny skies expected for most of the state.  By Thursday highs are expected to climb into upper 60s and 70s statewide:  Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s for a large part of Alabama.

Storms are expected to arrive along or ahead of a cold front on Thursday. The latest timing shows storms possible in north and central Alabama by Thursday afternoon into the evening hours — although that could change.  “While it is too far out to get too specific, this system does have the potential to produce all modes of severe weather, including flash flooding, and will bear watching as the event nears,” the weather service in Mobile said on Monday morning.

The storms are expected to clear out by Friday and clearing skies and seasonable (cooler) temperatures are expected over the weekend.