(WASHINGTON) — An inflation report to be released on Thursday will offer a look at price increases for the first time in nearly two months, after the 43-day government shutdown impaired data collection.
The fresh data is set to arrive amid an uptick of inflation over recent months that has coincided with a flurry of tariffs issued by President Donald Trump. Economists expect that acceleration of price increases to have continued last month, forecasting a jump in year-over-year inflation from 3% in September to 3.1% in November.
The report will detail the latest price movements for high-profile items like coffee, beef and eggs.
In September — the most recent month for which data is available — the price of coffee soared nearly 19% and the price of beef jumped about 15%, when compared to the same month a year prior.
The year-over-year price of eggs dropped nearly 5% in September, offering a bright spot for consumers.
The federal government will issue partial price data for October, but the release will not include a figure for the overall rise in prices that month, since officials failed to collect sufficient information during the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) previously said in a statement.
The latest snapshot of price increases comes at a wobbly period for the U.S. economy, landing in a period marked by sluggish hiring and elevated inflation.
Two major economic data releases earlier this week flashed warning signs, some analysts previously told ABC News.
The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, which marked a significant decline from 119,000 jobs added in September, the most recent month for which complete data is available, the BLS said in a jobs report on Tuesday.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September. Unemployment remains low by historical standards but has inched up to its highest level since 2021.
A retail sales report on Tuesday also sounded a cautionary note about consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Retail sales were left unchanged in October from September, meaning performance remained flat despite the ramp-up of the holiday season, U.S. Census Bureau data showed.
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in an effort to boost the sluggish labor market. The move amounted to the third rate cut this year, bringing the Fed’s benchmark rate to a level between 3.5% and 3.75%.
Interest rates have dropped significantly from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Fed is stuck in a bind, since the central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. To address pressure on both of its goals, the Fed primarily holds a single tool: interest rates.
The pressure on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate present a “challenging situation” for the central bank, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last week.
“There’s no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals,” Powell added.
The Fed will meet again to adjust interest rates next month. The odds of interest rates being left unchanged stand at about 75%, while the chances of a quarter-point rate cut register at 25%, according to CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
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