Key 2025 elections approach with Trump approval, congressional maps at stake: What to watch in November

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(NEW YORK) — With less than two months out to Election Day, this year’s elections — ranging from hot-button mayoral and gubernatorial contests to a vote over new congressional maps — are set to ramp up as candidates begin to make their final pitches to voters.

And even without presidential candidates on the ballot, a few elections this fall could serve as bellwethers over how Americans feel about the second Donald Trump administration or the future of the Democratic Party.

Here are some of the key races to watch:

New York City mayoral race
New York’s mayoral race made headlines after a relative newcomer won the crowded Democratic primary in June — and in some ways represents the struggle between the progressive and moderate wings of the party as it attempts to course-correct after losses in 2024.

State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist campaigning on a progressive economic platform who made a splash with savvy social media and campaigning, has remained the front-runner since clinching the Democratic primary. But Mamdani has faced some backlash over the feasibility of his proposals and current or former views on policing and Israel; some prominent Democratic elected officials have not yet endorsed him.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, attempting a political comeback as an independent after resigning in 2021 amid sexual harassment and inappropriate conduct allegations, maintains that he has the most experience to take on Trump and help the city. He has struggled to gain momentum since his Democratic primary loss.

Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who announced he’d run as an independent after federal bribery charges against him were dismissed, is calling for voters to give him four more years to continue turning around the city. But he faces discontent from New Yorkers who believe he may be too tied to Trump.

Adams said on Friday he will continue his bid for reelection following reports that Trump advisers have been making efforts over the last few weeks to persuade him to drop out of the race.

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, separately, has rebuffed calls to drop out of the race and argued that he’s above the fray of the other candidates. Sliwa ran against Adams in the 2021 mayoral election.

Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races
The only governor’s races in the country this year are in Virginia and New Jersey and are drawing national attention, heavy outside spending, and interest as early indicators for how the 2026 midterms could shake out.

In Virginia, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, faces Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in a contest that could give Democrats their first state trifecta since 2013. Whoever wins will also become Virginia’s first female governor.

Spanberger has raised more than $27 million and secured the endorsement of the Virginia Police Benevolent Association. Earle-Sears is the first Black woman elected statewide.

In New Jersey, Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli compete in a state that has not elected the same party three straight terms since 1961, with affordability and taxes central to the race. Trump’s inroads with Garden State voters could be tested in November, as Republicans point to last year’s presidential results as a sign the state has gotten more favorable for the GOP.

California’s Proposition 50 on its congressional map
Californians will vote in November on whether to adopt a redrawn congressional map — which could make five U.S. House districts more favorable to Democrats — as retaliation for new Republican-friendly maps passing into law in Texas in the middle of the decade, even though new lines are usually drawn after every census.

Gov. Gavin Newsom, considered a 2028 presidential hopeful, has pushed for the move, saying that Texas’ new map means Democrats have to respond in kind. Republican legislators and others, including actor and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, have argued that the move hurts voters’ ability to choose who represents them and throws more fuel on the flames of a “redistricting war” between red and blue states.

Special elections for open congressional seats
Several vacant U.S. House seats are set for special elections this fall. With Republicans holding only a narrow majority, the outcomes could shape the balance of power heading into 2026.

In Virginia’s 11th District, voters will select a successor to the late Rep. Gerry Connolly on Sept. 9, with Democratic James Walkinshaw — Fairfax County supervisor and Connolly’s former chief of staff — facing Republican Army veteran and former FBI agent Stewart Whitson.

Arizona’s 7th District will hold a Sept. 23 election after the death of Rep. Raúl Grijalva, featuring his daughter Adelita Grijalva, Daniel Butierez and Eduardo Quintana.

In Texas, a Nov. 4 contest will fill the 18th District seat vacated by the late Sylvester Turner.

And Tennessee’s 7th District will hold a Dec. 2 general election following an Oct. 7 primary.

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