(LONDON) — Donald Trump’s election has already triggered intense discussion of how he will impact the war in Ukraine, with all sides now preparing for potential negotiations once he takes office.
In Ukraine Trump’s victory has been met with mixed reactions. But while his threats to cut U.S. aid and his suggestions he could force Kyiv to give up territory have provoked obvious anxiety, perhaps surprisingly many Ukrainians have welcomed Trump’s win.
Some Ukrainian officials, commanders, soldiers, as well as public commentators, have told other media and ABC News they had hoped Trump would win the election, seeing it as at least a chance to end the war that they feel is not going in Ukraine’s favor, even if it an opportunity also fraught with risks.
That sentiment reflects the deep disillusionment with the Biden administration widespread in recent months among Ukrainians, many of whom view its policy as giving Ukraine enough to barely survive but not to achieve victory or even force fair negotiations. Though grateful for the huge support provided early in the war, many Ukrainians express frustration at what is termed Biden’s “self-deterrence,” imposing restrictions on some weapons and sometimes slow-rolling aid over what they see as overblown fears Russia will further escalate the war.
“Trump’s rise to power gave Ukraine hope,” a commander of a drone unit fighting in eastern Ukraine told ABC News. “He is too straightforward a person who will not pretend to help us, as the Democrats did. He is stronger than Biden and is ready to make strong decisions,” said the commander, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Trump during the election campaign repeatedly vowed to end the war in “24 hours” by forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine to negotiate. He and members of his campaign have previously suggested that might be required to accept territorial losses.
While many Ukrainians worry Trump may still cut aid, some are ready to gamble on him, believing it’s better than continuing on a path that is bleeding the country and which many think is unlikely to regain Ukrainian territory in any case.
Russia is slowly advancing at multiple places on the frontline in eastern Ukraine, with Ukrainian troops stretched thin, reporting dangerous shortages of manpower.
“The only way left is the diplomatic path,” the commander in eastern Ukraine told ABC News.
Other Ukrainians are much more fearful, worried with Putin in a strong position he will succeed in imposing his terms in negotiations. A senior Ukrainian military official told ABC News he feared negotiating now could be a “fatal mistake”, that could see Ukraine lose territory permanently while receiving little future protection.
“You understand why Russia is agreeing to negotiations,” the official said. “They’re also run into the ground and tired. They want a breather and to regroup.” Putin would use any ceasefire now to re-arm and then re-invade Ukraine, the official warned, saying instead the U.S. should strengthen Ukraine and negotiate once Russia’s military further cracked.
Others believe that Trump, who prizes a strongman image, is unlikely to simply capitulate to Putin. Instead, they hope if Putin refuses to negotiate, Trump might supply Ukraine with more weapons with fewer restrictions to force Russia to the table.
“Do you think Trump will agree to be brought to his knees by Putin? I doubt it,” said Oleksandr Chalyi, Ukraine’s former ambassador to Washington. “Donald Trump, who says ‘let’s make America great and strong again, America first’ is not ready for a dialogue where he will be humiliated.”
Trump’s selection of Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida as his national security adviser and potential pick of Sen. Marco Rubio for his secretary of state, offered some potential encouragement to those who hope a Trump administration might take a tough line on Russia during negotiations.
Both Waltz and Rubio have been strong supporters of Ukraine during the war, while vehemently criticizing the Biden administration’s strategy and insisting NATO countries should do more.
Waltz, a former Green Beret with a reputation as a China hawk, wrote in an op-ed for The Economist magazine this month that a Trump administration should use economic pressure, in particular through reinforced sanctions on Russia’s oil exports, to force Putin to negotiate. If Putin refuses, the U.S. should increase weapon supplies to Ukraine, he wrote. He also told NPR that the U.S. could lift restrictions on Ukraine using Western long-range weapons to hit deep inside Russia, to pressure Putin to a deal.
The current Biden approach would still end in a stalemate with Rusia occupying some Ukrainian territory, Waltz wrote in The Economist, saying that it “will just take more time, blood, and treasure to get there.”
Trump has yet to formally announce he will select Rubio as his Secretary of State and he would need Senate approval.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has spoken to Trump by phone since his election, so far has publicly rejected giving up any territories and last week warned that a quick peace deal would likely end badly for Ukraine.
“We all want to end this war, but a fair ending,” Zelenskyy told journalists during a European summit in Budapest. “If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine.”
The head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s parliamentary party, David Arakhamia, told ABC News last week it was too soon to discuss specific plans. But he warned Ukraine could only accept freezing the war if the U.S. provided “real security guarantees” that would prevent Russia from simply using a ceasefire to re-arm.
“We have to find the solution that guarantees people that once the war is over, it’s not going to be repeated again,” said Arakhamia, saying real security guarantees were Ukraine’s “number one” priority. But, he said, it was “good” that the U.S. is thinking seriously about the resolution to the war.
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