(NEW YORK) — Monday’s bombshell report alleging infidelity and possible violations of House ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., is rattling his reelection bid in a key Long Island district. But it’s not just New York’s 4th Congressional District that’s at stake.

D’Esposito, a former police detective, allegedly hired his longtime fiancée’s daughter and his mistress to work in his district office, jobs that received taxpayer-funded salaries, The New York Times reported Monday. The first-term lawmaker was already facing a tough reelection bid in a race that political handicappers rate a tossup as he wages a rematch against Democrat Laura Gillen, who he beat by less than 4 points in 2022.

D’Esposito’s district is one of over a dozen that President Joe Biden won in 2020 and is at the heart of the path to the House majority for either party — meaning that any slip-up could not just cost him his seat but also Republicans their already wafer-thin control of the chamber.

“This could be absolutely transformative and a real shot in the arm for the Democratic efforts to retake the House. The path back to power runs right through New York, and any shift in the political winds in any of these so-called Biden districts that are held by vulnerable Republicans could shake the math up. And Anthony D’Esposito just got that much more vulnerable,” said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish.

“This is a moderate suburban district, but transgressions like this are not smiled upon. So, yeah, this action just in and of itself could alter the balance of power.”

The New York Times report sent shockwaves through Washington and Long Island Monday just six weeks before Election Day.

Republicans are vying to defend their 220-212 majority in the House — an edge so painfully narrow it causes persistent headaches for GOP leaders to move legislation through the chamber. Seventeen Republican-held seats up for grabs this year were won by Biden four years ago, easily enough to offset the chamber’s current margin.

Long Island has gained heightened attention for veering right in recent years, culminating in a Republican sweep in 2022, including for D’Esposito.

However, Democrat Tom Suozzi retook one of those Long Island districts in a special election triggered earlier this year by the resignation of scandal-plagued former Republican Rep. George Santos and Democrats are hopeful that energy around Vice President Kamala Harris could lift up candidates down the ballot in November — an advantage the party didn’t enjoy in the 2022 midterms.

That makes running airtight races crucial for a GOP wary of doing anything to build on Democrats’ existing edge in those 17 majority-making districts.

“It’s an earthquake for D’Esposito,” said former Rep. Steve Israel, who used to represent a Long Island district and headed House Democrats’ campaign arm for two terms. “The fact is that it is a Democratic district that supported Biden, which means if you’re a Republican, you can’t afford mistakes, you cannot afford scandals, you cannot afford to lose yardage. And this particular story sets D’Esposito back significantly.”

“In a Trumpian environment where scandals don’t seem to matter, it’s possible for D’Esposito to survive,” Israel added. But “he now has spent more money than he wanted, the [National Republican Congressional Committee] has to come in and patch up the deficiencies. It’s not a headache, it’s a migraine.”

Republicans who spoke to ABC News argued that the scandal wasn’t quite so detrimental but conceded that the news wouldn’t help D’Esposito or the larger party’s prospects this November.

“Certainly, this type of news hurts. All depends on what if any lead he already has,” said New York GOP strategist Tom Doherty, who said he still believes Republicans will “do well” in Nassau County, where part of D’Esposito’s district lies.

“In a tight race where there’s a segment that may care about that or may be concerned about whether or not someone should have been on a payroll or not, that could make a difference, absolutely,” added one New York Republican strategist. “It can be harmful at the margins, and it depends on how close the race is to see if it matters or not.”

For his part, D’Esposito has hammered The New York Times over its report — without directly denying its allegations — while allies have come out behind him.

“The latest political tabloid garbage being peddled by The New York Times is nothing more than a slimy, partisan ‘hit piece’ designed to distract Long Islanders from Democrats’ failing record on border security, the economy, and foreign policy. My personal life has never interfered with my ability to deliver results for New York’s 4th district, and I have upheld the highest ethical standards of personal conduct,” D’Esposito said Monday.

“It’s a partisan hit piece that would not surprise anyone, and a tight election cycle in a seat that’s, it’s, it’s hotly contested, but he’s been a very strong advocate for his district. I’ve been up there a lot. I know the people of his district, and they are, they’re great champions of him and he of them,” Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., added Tuesday.

And, other Republicans argued, scandals just make less of an impact in an era dominated by seemingly historic controversies at the presidential level.

“I don’t see this making much of a difference at the voting booth. Voters understand that real life can be tricky,” said New York GOP strategist William O’Reilly, who added that scandals like this “definitely” pack less of a punch in the Trump era.

Some Democrats also sounded a hesitant note, arguing that the story could deal significant damage but that it’s taking place on terrain increasingly favorable to Republicans like D’Esposito.

“The question is, does this seal the deal? The answer is, no. Long Island is leaning much more red, much more Trump. Could this be something that puts Laura Gillen over the top or closes the race? Yeah, it could,” said New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who added that concerns about crime could dovetail with D’Esposito’s background as a detective.

Still, voters in D’Esposito’s district backed Biden by double digits in 2020, and operatives anticipated chatter of the scandal to spread like wildfire in the district.

“You’ve got to be able to amplify it, particularly with undecided voters. There’s a significant cohort of those voters in NY-04. The advantage they have is that they don’t really have to spend the money on it. The earned media will take care of that for them. I woke up this morning to an inbox filled with emails from Democrats and Republicans alike chattering about the news,” Israel said. “It will become its own narrative.”

“This revelation certainly does not help Republicans retain control of the House,” he added. “This is an obstacle in that path.”

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