ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP/Getty Images(MOSCOW) — Rex Tillerson arrived in Moscow Tuesday for his first visit as U.S. secretary of state amid unpromising circumstances, with the Kremlin glowering over the U.S. missile strikes on Syria last week and Russia and the United States suddenly once more openly at loggerheads over the conflict.
In the weeks after President Trump’s inauguration, Tillerson’s first trip to Russia had been expected to be friendly, one to cement a new Russian-U.S. alliance against international terrorism and, for some, even perhaps to initiate a “grand bargain” that would carve up the world into Russian and U.S. spheres of influence.
Instead, Tillerson finds himself in the same role played by his Obama-era predecessor, John Kerry, flying into Moscow to deliver a U.S. insistence that the Kremlin drop its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and tasked with feeling out what Russia might accept in Syria.
“Rex Tillerson Instead of a Big Deal,” the headline of the influential newspaper, Kommersant, read Tuesday, the day before he is scheduled to meet with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov.
The alleged chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province last week that killed dozens has prompted an about-face from the Trump administration over the conflict and, in particular, the fate of Assad, whom Russia backs heavily and whom, until last week, the administration had suggested it was content to leave in place.
The Trump administration’s mixed signals
But since Syria’s apparent chemical attack and the firing of 59 cruise missiles by the United States at the airbase from where it was allegedly launched, the administration has issued mixed messages, with some senior officials suggesting the United States now wants Russia to force Assad to step down.
Over the weekend, Trump’s U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley, told CNN, “We don’t see a peaceful Syria with Assad in there.”
Tillerson had echoed that last week but Sunday told ABC News’ This Week that the U.S. policy on Syria was “unchanged” and suggested that defeating ISIS in Syria took priority over seeing Assad step aside.
“Once we can eliminate the battle against ISIS,” Tillerson said Sunday, “then we hope to turn our attention to ceasefire agreements between the regime and opposition forces” and seek a political solution.
At the same time, Tillerson is reported to be traveling to Moscow with an ultimatum for it to rein in Assad. The British foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, has called on the G7 group of the world’s most powerful nations to draw up new sanctions to target Russia for its support of Assad. Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, for one, has accused Russia of cooperating with Syrian government forces in a chemical weapons attack.
Russia unmoved by world reaction
Russia has responded by digging in on its support of Assad. It has furiously decried the U.S. missile strikes, with a Kremlin spokesman calling them “an aggression against a sovereign state.” Russia’s defense ministry said it is pulling out of a safety mechanism meant to prevent accidental clashes between U.S. and Russian aircraft operating over Syria.
Meanwhile, Russian state television, which once effusively praised Trump, has spoken of betrayal and disappointment.
The show of pique has extended to the Kremlin, implying Putin will now shun meeting Tillerson. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters Tuesday he couldn’t confirm the meeting. In reality, however, one is still expected, with the Russian business outlet, RBC, quoting government sources’ saying it will take place.
Despite the stormy rhetoric, government sources quoted in the Russian media and analysts speaking to ABC News say, the Kremlin is less angry than confused by the Trump administration’s attitude to Syria. The main thing, they say, is that Russia hopes to obtain from Tillerson’s visit a clear understanding of what the United States now wants in Syria.
“Most of all, Russia expects that Tillerson will explain what is happening in America’s foreign policy,” said Sergey Markov, a pro-Kremlin analyst based in Moscow. “Because we don’t understand what is happening at all. Trump doesn’t have a clear, precise policy on Syria.”
The Kremlin might want to ‘let it slide’
In Moscow, Markov and a number of other analysts said, the U.S. strikes were viewed most likely a prop to boost Trump’s slumped support at home, not to change things in Syria. But they say they do not understand what the administration’s attitude to Assad was or how actively the United States now plans to be involved in Syria.
“If it’s a one-off, then the Kremlin can let it slide,” said Pavel Felgengauer, a veteran defense analyst in Moscow, referring to the strikes.
Russia’s foreign ministry issued a long statement before Tillerson’s arrival, laying most of the blame for current tensions on the Obama administration, saying it hoped for “constructive cooperation,” “not confrontation” during Tillerson’s visit, hinting it still hoped for a turn toward less openly hostile relations with Washington.
But if the U.S. goal now is to force Russia to push Assad aside, there is no sign the Kremlin is ready to do so, having spent billions and invested major military and political capital to keep him in power, and just as his position is the strongest in years. Russia has been working to establish a peace process on its own terms, one that would largely be a fig leaf for a regime victory, with Moscow-backed opposition figures developing a new constitution and a proposed transitional government that apparently would include Assad.
Few Russian observers believe the Kremlin considers Assad an ideal partner, with some suggesting Russia wants the regime to participate more actively in negotiations. But, analysts said, Russia considers there is no alternative for obtaining its goals.
“If Bashar were not there, what would Russia do?” asked Aleksei Malashenko, a prominent expert on Russian Middle-East policy. “The problem is Russia doesn’t have a successor for Bashar.”
Copyright © 2017, ABC Radio. All rights reserved.